Bitcoin Price Must Clear $6,800 for Range Breakout

4th October 2018

Bitcoin continues to trade in a narrow range for the 13th straight day and a move above $6,800 is needed to confirm a bullish breakout, according to technical chart.

At press time, the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $6,600, representing a 1.65 percent gain on the day.

BTC has been restricted to a narrow range of $6,800 to $6,500 since Sept. 22 and this lack of clear directional bias has pushed the volatility reading to a 21-month low.

The daily volatility as represented by the Bollinger bandwidth – a technical analysis tool derived by dividing the gap between the Bollinger bands by price's moving average – has dropped to 0.078, its lowest level since December 2016.

A prolonged period of low volatility often paves way for a big move in either direction. So, it seems safe to say that BTC could soon witness a bullish or bearish breakout and the direction of the big move could be gauged with the help of the Bollinger bands.

As can be seen, the Bollinger bands (standard deviation of +2, -2 on the 20-day moving average) are moving in a sideways manner, indicating there is no clear trend in the bitcoin market.

Meanwhile, Bollinger bandwidth dropped to levels last seen in December 2016.

If BTC finds acceptance above the upper Bollinger band of $6,800, then investors could conclude that an extended period of low volatility has ended with a bullish breakout.

On the other hand, a move below the lower Bollinger band of $6,290 would imply the consolidation has ended with a downside break.

The prospects of a downside break appear high as the cryptocurrency is again struggling to clear the 50-day exponential moving average (MA), currently located at $6,640.

- The immediate outlook remains neutral as long as BTC is trapped between the Bollinger bands.
- A UTC close above the upper Bollinger band of $6,800 would confirm a bullish breakout and would open up upside towards the September high of $7,429.
- A break below the lower Bollinger band of $6,290 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of the June low of $5,755.

By Omkar Godbole,

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